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Health & Fitness

Rob Rains Inside Baseball: More Unknowns than Knowns in Cardinals Playoff Scenarios

Rob Rains is a veteran sportswriter, editor of StLSportsPage.com. Follow him @RobRains on Twitter

With one week and six games to go in the regular season, there are far more unknowns than knowns to the questions about whether the Cardinals will win the NL Central, or if they will be a wild card, and who and when they could be playing in October.

Let’s start with what is known for certain:

The Cardinals’ magic number to clinch the division is five. That means any combination of St. Louis wins and losses by the Reds and Pirates, both of whom are two games behind the Cardinals, totaling five would give the Cardinals their first division title since 2009.

This is the easiest path to October and to avoiding possible tiebreaker and wild-card game scenarios. 

If the Cardinals win the division, then the question is whether they can win home-field advantage for the Division Series. To do that they would have to finish with a better record than one of the other two division champs, the Braves or Dodgers. After Sunday night’s loss the Cardinals are at 91 wins, one behind the Braves and one ahead of the Dodgers. If they finish with the second most wins, they would have the home-field advantage for the Division Series and would play the division champion with the third-best record. 

Finishing with the best overall record would also guarantee the Cardinals the home field advantage in the NL Championship Series. The AL team will have the home-field advantage in the World Series as a result of winning the All-Star game.

After a one-year diversion in 2012 because of the late-addition of the second wild-card team, the schedule for the Division Series returns to the traditional 2-2-1 format, meaning the team with the best record would host the first two games and a potential series-deciding fifth game.

After the winner of the wild-card game is determined, that team would open the Division Series at the home of the Division champion with the best overall record, even if those teams come out of the same division.

With a week to play, and with three head-to-head games remaining between the Pirates and Reds, next weekend in Cincinnati, there is still a realistic possibility of either a two-team tie for the Division title, a three-way tie for the Division title and the two wild card spots, or a two-way tie for the wild card spots.

Here is what happens, we think, in those scenarios:

If the Cardinals and Pirates tie for the division title, there will be a one-game playoff on Monday, Sept. 30 in Pittsburgh, with home field decided by the fact the Pirates were 10-9 against the Cardinals in their head-to-head games this year. The winner of that game will become the division champion and the loser will host the Reds in the wild-game game on Tuesday, Oct. 1 or perhaps Wednesday, Oct. 2. 

If the Cardinals and Reds tie for the division title, there will be a one-game playoff on Monday in St. Louis. The Cardinals were 11-8 against the Reds this season. The winner of that game will be the division champion, and the loser will host the wild-card game.

The scenarios are a lot more muddled if all three teams tie. The first criteria to break the tie will be the combination of head-to-head records among the three teams. The Cardinals are 20-18 against the Pirates and Reds, but whether or not that will be the best record or not won’t be determined until after the Pirates-Reds series is over next Sunday. After this weekend, their head-to-head record stands dead even at 8-8.

Whichever of the three teams has the best record in those head-to-head games gets to decide if it wants to play one game, on the road, or two games at home to try to determine whether it wins the division title or be a wild-card team. 

Playoff roster also undecided

Even if the Cardinals know they are headed to the playoffs, in some capacity, they have to use this week not only to determine their seed in the tournament but also to pick the 25 players it wants on its roster, at least for the Division Series.

As has been the case in recent years, a team will be allowed to change its roster between rounds. This could come into play if the Cardinals decide Allen Craig is not ready for the Division Series but can return for the NLCS.

The biggest decision GM John Mozeliak and manager Mike Matheny have to make is picking the order of the starting pitchers, and deciding if they want to go with an extra pitcher or an extra bench player in the first round. Complicating that decision is the current struggles of closer Edward Mujica.

The first three starting pitchers would seem to be Adam Wainwright, Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller, with the order to be determined, with the fourth start probably going to Lance Lynn ahead of Michael Wacha.

Factors in that decision will be Lynn’s postseason experience and the fact he has pitched well in his last three starts, and the fact Wacha is likely better suited to pitch in relief in the playoffs than would be the case with Lynn, who has been exclusively a starter all season.

Most of the bullpen spots seem locks, with the biggest question being Mujica’s status. Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness, Randy Choate and John Axford are all set, and unless he is hurt and can’t pitch, Mujica will be on the roster as well.

If the Cardinals decide to go with only 11 pitchers... [To read more: http://www.robrains.com/CARDINALSBASEBALL/tabid/91/entryid/812/more-unknowns-than-knowns-in-cardinals-playoff-scenarios.aspx ]

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