Health & Fitness
Rob Rains Inside Baseball: The Challenges Facing The Cardinals’ Rotation
By Rob Rains, StLSportsPage.com
The Cardinals played their 81st game of the season on Sunday, reaching the halfway point of the year 17 games over .500 and on pace to win 98 games.
Still, the first poor stretch of the season, including a disappointing loss on Sunday, has seemed to prompt many to forget all of the good things that have happened to this team so far this season:
They have the leading hitter in the league, and the first-half MVP, in Yadier Molina. They have perhaps the favorite to win the Cy Young Award in Adam Wainwright. If he can correct his problems of the past few starts, they have one of the leading candidates for the Rookie of the Year award in Shelby Miller.
They have one of the best run producers in the league in Allen Craig. They have perhaps one of the best success stories of the year in the league in Matt Carpenter. At least at the moment they have no serious injuries to any key performers. They have scored 112 more runs than their opponents, by far the biggest run differential in the majors.
Despite all of that working in their favor, however, the Cardinals are not running away with the NL Central, locked in a tough division race with the Pirates and Reds that likely will stay that way for the next three months. That seems to be the biggest reason for the fans’ unrest. A nine-game winning streak by Pittsburgh has moved the Pirates two games ahead of the Cardinals, but the hidden fact is that eight of those nine wins came against Milwaukee, Seattle and the Angels, who are a combined 32 games under .500.
The biggest key for the Cardinals to come out on top of that race will be the performance of their starting pitchers. The unit that was easily the best in the league in April and May stumbled a bit in June, going from a 30-10 record and 2.58 ERA in the season’s first two months to a 13-12 record and 4.40 ERA in June.
The biggest series’ of the second half will be the four head-to-head matchups between the Cardinals and Pirates, two in each city. All 14 games will be played between July 29 and Sept. 8.
Here are the individual challenges facing the five Cardinals’ starters as the second half begins:
Wainwright – With 11 wins, he is on pace for a career-high 22 victories. As important as the individual victory total, however, the biggest challenge for Wainwright is to remain the team’s ace. He has to be the pitcher who prevents losing streaks. The Cardinals have won 12 of his 17 starts and four of those wins came after a loss. He has lost only twice, including the non-infamous game a week ago against Texas, following a team loss.
In addition to his own performance, Wainwright has to be the pitcher who instills confidence in the team’s young starters, the one who motivates and challenges them to pitch to the level of their potential. He has to continue to set the example.
Wainwright begins the second half of the year on a pace to work 250 innings, which would be a career high. What will be more interesting to watch is how close he can come, or top, his oft-stated goal of finishing the year with more victories than walks. At the moment, the walks are winning that race by one, 12 to 11.
Another stat which shows how good Wainwright was in the first half – according to the Elias Sports Bureau, he is the first pitcher to enter July with an ERA of less than 2.25 with more than 125 innings pitched since Randy Johnson in 2000. The last Cardinal to do it? Bob Gibson in 1969 (140 innings, 2.19 ERA).
Miller – After going 5-3 with a 2.02 ERA in April and May, Miller’s performance dropped a notch in June, when he went 3-3 and his ERA climbed to 4.31. He is coming off the shortest start of his career, lasting just five outs in losing to Oakland on Friday night.
How Miller responds, not just to that singular game but to his reduced success of the past several starts, could determine what happens to the Cardinals the rest of the season. No matter what order they pitch in, Miller is the team’s second best starter and he has to pitch like it.
Will he be as good as he was in April and May? Probably not. Teams have now scouted him and have video of his high fastballs. Will he be better than he was in June? Probably. It all depends on what adjustments he makes, and if he is able to listen to suggestions and advice, from Wainwright and others, to capitalize on his tremendous ability.
Lance Lynn – He is perhaps the biggest wild card in the rotation. Will Lynn pitch as he did in the first half, not only this year but in 2012, or will his second half more closely resemble the last three months of 2012?
Lynn was 11-4 with a 3.41 ERA in the first half of 2012, but only 7-3, with an ERA almost a full run higher, the rest of the season. He has reached the mid-point of this season with an 11-2 record. The record is a little deceiving because of good run support. Lynn won three of his five starts in June despite a 4.83 ERA during the month.
The Cardinals are counting on Lynn’s improved physical condition to help his performance the rest of this year. Having gone through that rough stretch a year ago should help him mentally as well.
Jake Westbrook – When he is getting groundballs, Westbrook is successful. When he is getting the ball up, as he did Sunday in Oakland, he and the Cardinals are in trouble. His teammates staked him to a 3-0 lead against the Athletics, and by the time Westbrook left the mound after the fourth inning, he and the Cardinals were down 6-5.
Westbrook also needs to cut down on his walk total, which has averaged almost four per game. He has pitched through elbow inflammation this year, and also needs to avoid high pitch counts which could force him out of games early.
Joe Kelly – Also a wildcard, because how much of an opportunity will be really get? Kelly will start next Saturday for only the second time this season and likely will get one more start before the All-Star break.
Kelly has waited patiently for his chance to get back in the rotation after the Cardinals used John Gast, Tyler Lyons and Michael Wacha in that spot. He made 16 starts as a rookie last year and was solid, if not spectacular, and deserves the chance to show he can hold down this spot.
Whether that happens not only will be determined by how well Kelly pitches but also by what happens at Triple A Memphis, were both Carlos Martinez and Wacha are waiting .
If Kelly falters, or any of the other starters goes down, expect Martinez to get the next look.
In his seven starts since being optioned to Memphis, Martinez has worked 35 2/3 innings allowing 29 hits, eight earned runs, walking 12 and striking out 34. In his two most recent starts, the 21-year-old Martinez went a combined 13 2/3 innings allowing two earned runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out 13.
Around the majors
Tuesday’s game in Anaheim might be the most anticipated inter-league game the Cardinals have played since Bud Selig’s baby was born in 1997. It will be the Cardinals’ first game ever in Anaheim, and also the first game for Albert Pujols against his former team … St. Louis native Max Scherzer, now 12-0 for the Tigers, could be in line to become only the third St. Louis-area product to be the starting pitcher In an All-Star game. The other two were Jerry Reuss for the NL in 1975 and Mark Buehrle for the AL in 2005 … The last time the Pirates were the first team in the majors to reach 50 wins was 1960 … The Dodgers say pitcher Josh Beckett will undergo season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, the same injury affecting the Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter. He also is using the same surgeon, Dr. Greg Pearl, in Dallas.
Around the minors
Mason Katz, the Cardinals’ fourth round pick from LSU, got his first taste of life in the minors after reporting to short-season State College, Pa. Katz reported on Twitter that his first day of professional baseball included a four-hour bus ride, after which the team checked into a hotel in Batavia, N.Y., that did not offer ESPN. Then, the scheduled game got rained out, resulting in a double-header on Saturday … One of the players drafted by the Cardinals this year who is off to a quick start is outfielder Jimmy Bosco, selected in the 13th round. Playing at State College, Bosco, from Menlo (Calif.) College, is hitting .340 in his first 12 games and on Wednesday hit for the cycle
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Still, the first poor stretch of the season, including a disappointing loss on Sunday, has seemed to prompt many to forget all of the good things that have happened to this team so far this season:
They have the leading hitter in the league, and the first-half MVP, in Yadier Molina. They have perhaps the favorite to win the Cy Young Award in Adam Wainwright. If he can correct his problems of the past few starts, they have one of the leading candidates for the Rookie of the Year award in Shelby Miller.
They have one of the best run producers in the league in Allen Craig. They have perhaps one of the best success stories of the year in the league in Matt Carpenter. At least at the moment they have no serious injuries to any key performers. They have scored 112 more runs than their opponents, by far the biggest run differential in the majors.
Despite all of that working in their favor, however, the Cardinals are not running away with the NL Central, locked in a tough division race with the Pirates and Reds that likely will stay that way for the next three months. That seems to be the biggest reason for the fans’ unrest. A nine-game winning streak by Pittsburgh has moved the Pirates two games ahead of the Cardinals, but the hidden fact is that eight of those nine wins came against Milwaukee, Seattle and the Angels, who are a combined 32 games under .500.
The biggest key for the Cardinals to come out on top of that race will be the performance of their starting pitchers. The unit that was easily the best in the league in April and May stumbled a bit in June, going from a 30-10 record and 2.58 ERA in the season’s first two months to a 13-12 record and 4.40 ERA in June.
The biggest series’ of the second half will be the four head-to-head matchups between the Cardinals and Pirates, two in each city. All 14 games will be played between July 29 and Sept. 8.
Here are the individual challenges facing the five Cardinals’ starters as the second half begins:
Wainwright – With 11 wins, he is on pace for a career-high 22 victories. As important as the individual victory total, however, the biggest challenge for Wainwright is to remain the team’s ace. He has to be the pitcher who prevents losing streaks. The Cardinals have won 12 of his 17 starts and four of those wins came after a loss. He has lost only twice, including the non-infamous game a week ago against Texas, following a team loss.
In addition to his own performance, Wainwright has to be the pitcher who instills confidence in the team’s young starters, the one who motivates and challenges them to pitch to the level of their potential. He has to continue to set the example.
Wainwright begins the second half of the year on a pace to work 250 innings, which would be a career high. What will be more interesting to watch is how close he can come, or top, his oft-stated goal of finishing the year with more victories than walks. At the moment, the walks are winning that race by one, 12 to 11.
Another stat which shows how good Wainwright was in the first half – according to the Elias Sports Bureau, he is the first pitcher to enter July with an ERA of less than 2.25 with more than 125 innings pitched since Randy Johnson in 2000. The last Cardinal to do it? Bob Gibson in 1969 (140 innings, 2.19 ERA).
Miller – After going 5-3 with a 2.02 ERA in April and May, Miller’s performance dropped a notch in June, when he went 3-3 and his ERA climbed to 4.31. He is coming off the shortest start of his career, lasting just five outs in losing to Oakland on Friday night.
How Miller responds, not just to that singular game but to his reduced success of the past several starts, could determine what happens to the Cardinals the rest of the season. No matter what order they pitch in, Miller is the team’s second best starter and he has to pitch like it.
Will he be as good as he was in April and May? Probably not. Teams have now scouted him and have video of his high fastballs. Will he be better than he was in June? Probably. It all depends on what adjustments he makes, and if he is able to listen to suggestions and advice, from Wainwright and others, to capitalize on his tremendous ability.
Lance Lynn – He is perhaps the biggest wild card in the rotation. Will Lynn pitch as he did in the first half, not only this year but in 2012, or will his second half more closely resemble the last three months of 2012?
Lynn was 11-4 with a 3.41 ERA in the first half of 2012, but only 7-3, with an ERA almost a full run higher, the rest of the season. He has reached the mid-point of this season with an 11-2 record. The record is a little deceiving because of good run support. Lynn won three of his five starts in June despite a 4.83 ERA during the month.
The Cardinals are counting on Lynn’s improved physical condition to help his performance the rest of this year. Having gone through that rough stretch a year ago should help him mentally as well.
Jake Westbrook – When he is getting groundballs, Westbrook is successful. When he is getting the ball up, as he did Sunday in Oakland, he and the Cardinals are in trouble. His teammates staked him to a 3-0 lead against the Athletics, and by the time Westbrook left the mound after the fourth inning, he and the Cardinals were down 6-5.
Westbrook also needs to cut down on his walk total, which has averaged almost four per game. He has pitched through elbow inflammation this year, and also needs to avoid high pitch counts which could force him out of games early.
Joe Kelly – Also a wildcard, because how much of an opportunity will be really get? Kelly will start next Saturday for only the second time this season and likely will get one more start before the All-Star break.
Kelly has waited patiently for his chance to get back in the rotation after the Cardinals used John Gast, Tyler Lyons and Michael Wacha in that spot. He made 16 starts as a rookie last year and was solid, if not spectacular, and deserves the chance to show he can hold down this spot.
Whether that happens not only will be determined by how well Kelly pitches but also by what happens at Triple A Memphis, were both Carlos Martinez and Wacha are waiting .
If Kelly falters, or any of the other starters goes down, expect Martinez to get the next look.
In his seven starts since being optioned to Memphis, Martinez has worked 35 2/3 innings allowing 29 hits, eight earned runs, walking 12 and striking out 34. In his two most recent starts, the 21-year-old Martinez went a combined 13 2/3 innings allowing two earned runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out 13.
Around the majors
Tuesday’s game in Anaheim might be the most anticipated inter-league game the Cardinals have played since Bud Selig’s baby was born in 1997. It will be the Cardinals’ first game ever in Anaheim, and also the first game for Albert Pujols against his former team … St. Louis native Max Scherzer, now 12-0 for the Tigers, could be in line to become only the third St. Louis-area product to be the starting pitcher In an All-Star game. The other two were Jerry Reuss for the NL in 1975 and Mark Buehrle for the AL in 2005 … The last time the Pirates were the first team in the majors to reach 50 wins was 1960 … The Dodgers say pitcher Josh Beckett will undergo season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, the same injury affecting the Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter. He also is using the same surgeon, Dr. Greg Pearl, in Dallas.
Around the minors
Mason Katz, the Cardinals’ fourth round pick from LSU, got his first taste of life in the minors after reporting to short-season State College, Pa. Katz reported on Twitter that his first day of professional baseball included a four-hour bus ride, after which the team checked into a hotel in Batavia, N.Y., that did not offer ESPN. Then, the scheduled game got rained out, resulting in a double-header on Saturday … One of the players drafted by the Cardinals this year who is off to a quick start is outfielder Jimmy Bosco, selected in the 13th round. Playing at State College, Bosco, from Menlo (Calif.) College, is hitting .340 in his first 12 games and on Wednesday hit for the cycle
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Follow @RobRains on Twitter. Check out StLSportsPage.com. "Like" us on Facebook.
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